1استادیار حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی
2دانشیار مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی
3دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت مالی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی
چکیده
یکی از مشکلات اصلی در صنعت بانکداری ایران، فقدان مدلی جامع برای ارزیابی توان مالی بانکها با در نظر گرفتن شرایط بومی خاص صنعت بانکداری ایران میباشد. این پژوهش باهدف تدوین و طراحی مدلی برای این منظور انجام‌شده است. در ارزیابی توان مالی بانکها، میزان صحت و سلامت ذاتی بانکها موردسنجش قرار میگیرد. برای طراحی و تدوین مدل یادشده، ابتدا مدل مفهومی اولیه ارزیابی توان مالی بانکها با بررسیهای گسترده و استخراج ابعاد، مؤلفهها و شاخصهای پرکاربرد در این زمینه تدوین گردید. سپس این مدل در سه مرحله، روایی سنجی و بومیسازی شد. در مرحله نخست با برگزاری جلسات پنل خبرگان، روایی محتوایی ابعاد، مؤلفهها و شاخصها مورد بحث و بررسی قرار گرفت و اصلاحات لازم در مدل مفهومی اولیه انجام پذیرفت. در مرحله دوم با استفاده از نظرات خبرگان متشکل از اعضای هیأت علمی دانشگاهها، مدیران و کارشناسان مجرب حوزه بانکی و تحلیلگران صنعت بانکداری در بازار سرمایه، اعتبارسنجی ساختاری مدل صورت گرفت؛ و در نهایت در مرحله سوم، قابلیت اطمینان ابعاد و کل مدل مورد آزمایش قرار گرفت. مدل نهایی به‌دست‌آمده شامل 4 بُعد، 8 مؤلفه و 51 شاخص میباشد که میتواند به‌عنوان مدلی بومی و بدیع برای ارزیابی توان مالی بانکهای ایرانی مورداستفاده قرار گیرد. نتایج برآورد مدل نشان داد که بُعد وضعیت مالی، با 32 درصد وزن، بیشترین سهم را در میان ابعاد انعکاس‌دهنده توان مالی بانکهای ایرانی دارد. پس از بُعد وضعیت مالی، ابعاد وضعیت رقابتی، وضعیت مدیریت و وضعیت ریسک به ترتیب با اوزان 26، 25 و 16 در رتبههای بعدی قرار گرفتند.
One of the main problems in the Iranian Banking industry is lake of a comprehensive and native model for assessing financial strength of Iranian banks. So the aim of this study is to develop a model to meet this problem. Banks financial strength deal with banks inherent safety and soundness. To design and develop the model, an initial conceptual model was developed by extensive study of various dimensions, factors and indicators of assessing banks financial strength and extraction of widely used of them. Then, this conceptual model validated and localized at three steps. In the first step, content validity of the model was tested by expert panel and some modifications was made in the model. In the second step, construct validity of the model was tested based on opinions of expert panel formed of faculty members, managers and experts in the field of banking and related capital market financial analysts. Finally in the third step, reliability of the model was tested. The final model which is constructed from 4 dimensions, 8 factors and 51 indicators can be used as a native and novel model for assessing the financial strength of Iranian banks. The results show that the dimension of financial position with weight of 32 percent has the most contribution in reflecting Iranian banks financial strength. After that, the competitive position, the management position and the risk position with weights of 26, 25 and 16 percent, respectively have next ranks.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Assessing, Bank, Financial Strength, Model
مراجع
- Ahmadian, A. (2014). ‘Assesing of Bank Health Indicators in Iranian Banks (2011-2012)’, Monetary and Banking Research Institute Working Paper MBRI 9222, Iran. (in Persian)
- Barr R. S. Siems T. F. (1994). ‘Predicting bank failure using DEA to quantify management quality’, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Financial Industry Studies 1, 1-31.
- Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. (2004). ‘Bank failures in mature economies’, Working paper 13.
- Belloti, T. Matousek, R. and Stewart, C. (2011). ‘Are rating agencies’ assignments opaque? Evidence from international banks’, Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 38, No. 4, pp.4206-4214.
- Capital Intelligence Ratings, Seminar/Workshop on Bank Counterparty Risk Analaysis & Credit Ratings, Istanbul, Turkey, March 2014.
- Godlewski, C.J. (2007). ‘Are ratings consistent with default probabilities? Empirical evidence on banks in emerging market economies?’ Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp.5-23.
- Fitch Ratings, ‘Global Financial Institutions Criteria’, January 2014.
- Fitch Ratings, ‘Volatility Ratings: An Introductory Primer’, July 2011.
- Hammer, P.L. Kogan, A. and Lejeune, M.A. (2007). ‘Reverse-engineering banks’ financial strength ratings using logical anaysis of data’, Rutcor Research Report 10-2007.
- Hanafizadeh, P. (2013). ‘Developing a Model for Assessing of Governors’ E-Readiness’, Research Project of Center for Strategic Studies and Training of Ministry of Interior's, Iran. (in Persian)
- Hanafizadeh, P. and Rahmani, A. (2010). ‘Research Method of Multidimensional Constructs’, Termeh Publications, Iran. (in Persian)
- Hanafizadeh, M. R. Saghaei, A. and Hanafizadeh, P. (2009). An Index for Cross-Country Analysis of ICT Infrastructure and Access, Telecommunications Policy, 33(7), 385-405.
- Kazemi, H. (2013). ‘Rating of Iranian Commercial Banks Using the Multiple Objective Decision Making Model (Goal Programming)’, Iran Banking Institute, Master Thesis in Accounting. (in Persian)
- Laruccia, E. and Revoltella, D. (2000). ‘Banking system stability in developing and transition economies: an analysis of the determinants of Moody's bank financial strength rating’, Banca Commerciale Italiana Working Paper R2000-1, Italy.
- Levich, R. M. Majnoni, G. and Reinhart C. (2002). ‘Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System’. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
- Moody’s Investors Service, ‘Moody’s Bank Financial Strength Ratings: Global Methodology’, February 2007.
- Morgan D. P. (2002). ‘Rating banks: risk and uncertainty in an opaque industry’, The American Review 92 (4), 874-888.
- Öğüt, H. Doğanay, M.M. Ceylan, N.B. and Aktaş, R. (2012). ‘Prediction of bank financial strength ratings: the case of Turkey’, Economic Modeling, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp.632- 640.
- Packer, F and Tarashev, N. (June 2011). ‘Rating methodologies for banks’, BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlement.
- Pasiouras, F. Gaganis, C. and Zopounidis, C. (2006), ‘The impact of bank regulations, supervision, market structure, and bank characteristics on individual bank ratings: a cross-country analysis’, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Vol. 27, No. 4, pp.403-438.
- Pasiouras, F. Gaganis, C. and Doumpos, M. (2007). ‘A multicriteria discrimination approach for the credit rating of Asian banks’, Annals of Finance, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp.351-367.
- Poon, W.P.H. Firth, M. and Fung, H.G. (1999). ‘A multivariate analysis of the determinants of Moody's bank financial strength ratings’, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp.267-283.
- Pourkazemi, M. H. (2006). ‘Rating of Iranian Commercial Banks’, Journal of Economics Research and Policies, Vol. 14, NO. 39 and 40, 59-101. (in Persian)
- Standard & Poor’s, RatingsDirect, ‘how we rate banks’, July 2013.
- Taghavi, S. A. and Golbaz, L. (2016). ‘The effect of the creditworthiness of companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange on the volatility of their market value of equity’, Journal of Financial Management Strategy, Vol. 4, No. 12, 141-167. (in Persian)
ابتدای صفحه