ارزیابی عملکرد با استفاده از نسبت های مالی به شیوه الگوریتم درخت تصمیم گیری

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته گروه مدیریت؛ واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران؛ دانشگاه آزاد ؛ تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه مدیریت، واحد شهرقدس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

هدف مقاله شناسایی مهمترین نسبت های مالی است که می توان از طریق آن عملکرد شرکتها را ارزیابی نمود، لذا کلیه شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در بازه زمانی 1390 تا 1393 جامعه آماری پژوهش می باشد و طبق روش نمونه گیری حذفی سیستماتیک 102 شرکت حجم نمونه آماری را تشکیل دادند. این تحقیق از نظر هدف کاربردی و به لحاظ روش تحقیقی توصیفی از نوع همبستگی است. تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از روش تحلیل عاملی، مدل یابی معادلات ساختاری و دو الگوریتم معروف درخت تصمیم (CHAID,C&RT) با استفاده از نرم افزارهای SPSS,SMARTPLS,CLEMENTIN صورت پذیرفت. نتایج نشان داد که تعداد 24 نسبت از کل 28 نسبت مالی ، در ارزیابی عملکرد شرکت موثر بوده که با استفاده از آنالیز فاکتور اصلی PCA این نسبت ها در 7 دسته بنا بر وزن آنها از واریانس کل دسته بندی گردید.در مرحله بعد جهت بررسی نوع روابط و میزان همبستگی متغیر ها تحلیل عاملی تاییدی در مدل یابی معادلات ساختاری انجام و مدل اصلی ارائه گردید.نهایتا درخت تصمیم گیری ترسیم و نتایج نشان داد که الگوریتم های درخت تصمیم بالاترین دقت را ارائه می کنند و در میان کلیه نسبت ها،نسبت فعالیت بیشترین تاثیر را در ارزیابی عملکرد دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Financial Performance Using Decision Tree Algorithm Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nasrin Rezaee 1
  • Zahra Amirhosseini 2
1 islamic azad university
2 department of Management, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. (Correspondence Author)
چکیده [English]

The purpose of recent study is recognition of the most important financial ratios by which can evaluate company's performance. Therefore the total of accepted companies in stock exchange in Tehran which was active in 1390-1393 are considered as statistical universe of the research through which 102 companies organize the mass of statistical sample based on systematic elimination sampling method. The from the view point of exploratory and functional purpose, the research method is descriptive and interconnection including post –eventual researches. Analysis of data is accomplished by factorial analysis, structural equations modeling and two algorithms by using of CHAID, C&RT software , SPSS, SMARTTPLS, CLEMENTIN decision tree. after explanatory ,factorial analysis, the results of research show that the number of 24 ratios from the total of considered 28 financial ratios is effective in evaluation of company's performance which these ratios are classified in seven categories in terms of weight of each of them from total variance by using of main factor analysis PCA. in next stage, for studying the type of relations and the amount of variant interconnection, confirmatory factorial analysis is performed in structural equations modeling and the main model presented. Finally the result and drawing decision tree indicate that decision tree algorithms are presented the best prediction with the highest accuracy and among the sum of ratios, activity ratio has the most effect on performance evaluation

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Performance Evaluation
  • financial ratios
  • Structural Equations Modeling
  • Decision Making Tree
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